Playing With The House’s Money

Hockey season… at least as far as the Pittsburgh Penguins are concerned… is over. The 3-0 hole the Pens dug themselves against the Flyers proved to be too much to overcome, as they lost to the Flyers 1-0 in overtime last night.

On one hand, a frustrating loss. The Pens largely got the better of play for the third period and overtime, as reflected by the shots on goal. But they couldn’t get one past Flyers’ goalie Dan Vladar, and every 4-6 minutes they’d make a boneheaded play or get a bad bounce that gave the Flyers an uncomfortably good chance the other way. So despite largely Getting The Better Of Play(tm), it still felt like a Flyers win was more likely than not. So, yeah… a frustrating way to end the season.

On the other hand, I find myself not too disappointed the next morning. On a superficial “sour grapes” level, I feel like the Carolina Hurricanes are going to stomp WHOEVER came out of the series anyway. But more importantly, looking at the bigger picture, a frustrating end to the season doesn’t change that the season as a whole was a gift.

Think about it. Going into the year, there was legitimate speculation whether the Pens were planning to tank and bottom out in an effort to get Gavin McKenna, and WAY too many hockey pundits were insisting we “owed it to hockey” to trade Crosby to a contender because it was self-evident the Pens would suck. Instead, the Pens managed to navigate their way to 98 points and a playoff spot, AND do so in a way that still moved the longer-term rebuild significantly forward. As much as 98 points creates certain expectations of success and it stings to fall short, the Pens are MILES ahead of where we thought they’d be when the first puck was dropped back in October.

First, and maybe most importantly, they have a path forward at goaltender. Going into the season, we were tied to the annoyingly inconsistent Tristan Jarry for the next two years because of his contract. The best version of Jarry, seen in glimpses, made an All-Star Game earlier in his career; the worst version is a boat anchor. But in one of his better acts of trade wizardry, Kyle Dubas managed to get Jarry (and semi-prospect Sam Poulin) off the books for defenseman Brent Kulak, goalie Stuart Skinner (also has consistency issues, but at least his contract is expiring) and a draft pick. So… for better AND worse, they have freedom at the position moving forward. I imagine they’ll run it back with ONE of Silovs or Skinner and pair the survivor with promising rookie Sergei Murashov (24-9-3, 2.20 GAA, .919 save percentage at SWB). Or perhaps we’ll continue to fetishize John Gibson because he’s a local.

(After last night’s performance… let it be Silovs. Just sayin’.)

The Pens also managed to find some pieces that look like they’ll be part of the rebuild. First-round pick Ben Kindel made the team out of camp as an 18-year-old and played almost the full season, scoring 17 goals. Speaking of trade wizardry, getting Yegor Chinakhov from Columbus is starting to look like an absolute fleecing, as he put up 18 goals in 46 games for us. Free agent signing Justin Brazeau started the season fast, but then tailed off (partly due to injuries), but still ended the season with 17 goals. Heck, even 6’8″ giant Elmer Soderblom had an intriguing first impression, putting up 5 goals and 5 assists in the 20 games after he came over from Detroit.

Really, the one frustration on the development front was Rutger McGroarty. I would’ve liked that kid to step up and seize the opportunity a bit more. Still time, but it’s starting to feel like he’d better show SOMETHING in 2026-27.

Anthony Mantha was also a nice story, reviving his career with a 30-goal performance after missing almost a full year due to injury. I doubt he’s part of the long-term plan because he’s a free agent and SOMEONE probably throws a bag his direction. But it’s still a feel-good season and makes him a solid contender for the Masterton Trophy. Personally, there’s a little piece of me that would like to see another year of him just because he was the guy I always traded for in NHLXX franchise mode because I thought the Pens needed more size. But I recognize that’s not a rational basis for Kyle Dubas handing out $5M here in the real world.

The outlook on defense is still a bit more muddy. Yeah, they added a few pieces like Samuel Girard and Ilya Solovyov, but nobody who really made you say “yeah, this is the guy to build around”. It looks like maybe the help’s going to have to come from the minors or free agency here.

Cap-wise, they’re in pretty good shape, though I haven’t looked at the rest of the league or what the full free agent class is looking like yet. They were already $10M under the cap this year, and the list of pending free agents is tolerable. Kevin Hayes’ $7M is free money back in our pocket, I’d like to think a Malkin reunion would come in cheaper than the $6M he’d been getting on his last contract, they’re going to need to pay at least one veteran keeper to pair with Murashov, and the rest is just the usual lower-roster churn. I suppose it MIGHT be worth working out an extension with Chinakhov, who’s an RFA, so that might cost some bucks.

They’re also OK on draft picks, though not as loaded as they were when the season started. They’ve got a first, a pair of twos, and a third, but they originally had another 2nd and 3rd that became Chinakhov and Soderblom, respectively. They had also previously shipped out a 4th (the Karlsson deal) and 5th (the Bunting/Novak deal with Nashville). So they’ll have fun early and sit on their hands later in the draft unless they make other moves between now and then.

Add all that up, and there’s good cause for optimism as we close the book on 2025-26 and head into 26-27.

But then there is the elephant in the room. What’s the fate of the Big 3?

Crosby’s fine. On-ice, Crosby seemed to be ageless this year, other than the injury he suffered at the Olympics. Still beat a point per game, finished one goal shy of 30. And he’s still under contract through the coming year. Honestly, I’m still fine with “he plays as long as he wants and retires a Penguin”. Still probably won’t stop people from whining about how we owe it to hockey to trade him to Montreal.

Malkin’s issue is contractual. He had a solid enough year (19-42-61 in 56 games), but he’s a pending free agent. So… pass-fail, he probably played well enough to consider renewing him, but what sort of dollars and term would make sense? Also, what if some other team comes sniffing around for some veteran leadership — is nostalgia worth a bidding war? If you can get Malkin on a short deal for reasonable dollars… heck yeah, keep the boys together. If he wants multiple years or big dollars, or if a bidding war starts… maybe it’s time to say good-bye.

And then there’s Kris Letang.

(cue ominous music)

Sorry, but he’s the weak link of the three. He’s never been a great defender, but you could usually put up with it because of the offense he generated. But 3 goals and 31 assists while also getting turnstiled quite a bit? Oof. Problem is he’s also got the longest contract of the three (signed through 2027-28) so unless he happens to retire, the Pens would have to own the optics of actively pushing him out the door or paying $6M to a guy who’s drifting toward the third pair.

So yeah, it’s not ALL sunshine and rainbows for next season. But for today, in the immediate shadow of being bounced from the playoffs, I suppose I choose to focus on the positive.

Draftermath 2026!

The NFL Draft has come and gone, and it’s time for life in Pittsburgh to return to normal. (You know… at least until they shut down the Parkway East outbound for a month this summer. But that’s a topic for another day.) As a lover of New Football Toys, I certainly have some thoughts on the guys the Steelers drafted, but this year I get the added pleasure of reflecting on it as an attendee and a local who got to see my home town soak in the rays of the football spotlight for a weekend.

From the standpoint of an attendee… it was nice to experience, but I found that little goes a long way.

The biggest positive — not to do free PR for the NFL — was that the vibes were far more mellow than for a typical NFL Sunday. It really was more of a general celebration of football where yes, there happened to be a whole lot more Steeler fans than anyone else but it largely didn’t matter. Almost no shit-talking between fanbases; fairly little public intoxication. I will say, there was this weird dynamic where being THAT deep in the minority, the fans of other teams seemed like they were happier when they were able to “Where’s Waldo?” a fellow fan of their team. Steeler fans? Omnipresent. All we had was the joy of the occasional deep cut jersey. (The Chris Fuamatu Ma’afala won that one for me.)

We also got great weather for two of the three days, and public transportation really came through as an unsung hero. One of the local companies paid to underwrite free shuttle service from all four compass directions, and the east lot in Monroeville was minutes from where I live. Doesn’t get much easier than that. More generally, it was nice to get Pittsburgh out from under the shadow of Steel Industry Fetishism. I was watching one pre-draft show on Wednesday where they had B-roll from both the Church Brew Works and Phipps Conservatory. (There were limits to that, though: when they came back from the clip package, it was time for the obligatory delivery of Primanti’s to the set. FRIES ON THE SANDWICH!)

The negatives largely fell under the realities of a large corporate event. Large crowds and the fact that anything inside the Green Zone cost an arm and a leg. Anything that was an official attraction was packed to the gills, ESPECIALLY the draft itself. Full disclosure: I never got into the official viewing area and ended up watching Night 1 from inside Acrisure Stadium. So, in essence, my draft experience amounted to watching on a really BIG TV. With $17 beers and $50 T-shirts.

I will also say that watching it live actually made me appreciate how (comparatively) well the draft is packaged for TV. One may think Mel Kiper is annoying, but I promise you that listening to an unwanted playing of “Sweet Caroline” by a cover band is actually worse. And maybe the experience in the cattle pens was different, but at least at Acrisure, we didn’t get the clip packages of the guys as they were selected, which I found myself missing.

I originally planned to attend all three days, but once I was actually in the thick of it… I found that one day was really all I needed. Again, don’t read that as a negative. I just felt like running it back wouldn’t have added any more to the experience. I got to boo Roger Goodell, I got to see the Steelers make a pick. Other than maybe watching Day 2 from the cattle pens, I didn’t see another trip adding much, and my legs vetoed the requisite 5 hours of standing. So… sports bar it was for Day 2, and then Day 3 was “doing other stuff and jumping back in when the Steelers were getting close to picking”.

As far as the Steeler content, I’m not going to go too deep into wingspan and hip-flippery and try to pass myself off as an expert. Just some of the impressions I had while watching.

First things first, I’m in the firm minority that I didn’t see the Makai Lemon thing as THAT big a “failure”. Yes, the optics look bad with the dueling phone calls and Omar Khan pretending Iheanachor was their first choice until the video came out, but it does seem like a thing that’s easy to second guess in hindsight. It took two 4ths for the Eagles to move up. Without advance knowledge of how it would eventually turn out, how hard would you REALLY have pushed for the Steelers to send two 4ths (or more) to move up ONE spot? It’s also worth mentioning that Lemon was also only the third receiver taken while six offensive linemen had already been selected, so maybe o-Line was always the right call. I guess we’ll know at the end of their rookie contracts.

Max Iheanachor (T, Arizona State)

The pick is growing on me. My initial reaction was “didn’t we just do this with Broderick Jones”? Toolsy guy who hasn’t been playing the position very long; has some ceiling but will need coaching to reach it. Sound familiar? But I was talked down from the ledge the more I read: most mocks had him SOMEWHERE in the 1st; they just didn’t have him going to the Steelers because (some combination of) the Steelers didn’t bring him in for a visit, and they generally expected the board to break differently. (In particular, a lot of people saw Fano and/or Ioane falling further.) End of the day, we needed a lineman, we got a lineman.

Germie Bernard (WR, Alabama)

No problem with this choice at all. Continuing the theme, we needed a slot guy, we got a slot guy. Doesn’t have that deep threat aspect, but good at doing the dirty work in the middle of the field. In the moment, I thought maybe we should’ve moved back into the end of the first round and gone after Cooper from Indiana, but (continuing the theme) Bernard feels like the right pick for where we were at that point.

(Lacking anywhere else to place this observation, I also liked K.C. Concepcion quite a bit. I know he had issues with drops in college, but that kid could separate.)

Not to beat the Lemon horse too much, but if you treat the first two picks as a combo platter, I actually do feel like Iheanachor/Bernard makes a better combined pair than Lemon/Sir-Lineman-Not-Appearing-In-This-Film.

Drew Allar (QB, Penn State)

As John Lennon might have said, “Drew Allar is what happens while you’re busy making other plans.”

My initial thought is the Steelers were either smoke-screening about how much they love Will Howard, or they got played by Aaron Rodgers and he’s not coming back. Almost has to be one or the other, doesn’t it? It just doesn’t seem like Rodgers backed up by two rookies makes a lick of sense: Rodgers is a compete-now move, so… that means Rudolph as a veteran backup, right? And I don’t see them carrying four QBs.

I’ll admit I’m not especially sold on Allar, but I think the “original sin” is letting Rodgers hold us hostage in the first place. I would’ve rather seen come up with a real plan to address the position and told Rodgers to enjoy life as a full-time ayahuasca spokesperson. But once you accept waiting for Rodgers as a sunk cost, if you’re going to take a flyer on a quarterback, might as well be the one with the big arm. At least it’s a 3rd, and not a 1st like Pickett was?

Also, I suspected we’d take a QB, but I’ll admit I thought it would be Nussmeier because of the family connections.

Daylen Everette (CB, Georgia)

Sounds like it’s a bet on tools (size and speed) over technique. There’s no expectation that he’s being brought in to start, so… fine, I guess? (The experts feel like he was a bit of an overdraft, but I’m not going to pretend I know enough to say one way or the other.)

Gennings Dunker (T, Iowa)

Ginger with a mullet? Competes in hay-bale throwing contests? Wears SIX-SEVEN (you know… for the Young People…) Steeler Nation is going to lose their minds when he makes the inevitable “welcome to tahn” appearance at Primanti’s. On-field, sounds like he might move inside to guard for an earlier path to playing time. The only rain-cloud is that it feels like a little bit of an insurance policy in case Itchy doesn’t pan out.

Kaden Wetjen (KR/PR, Iowa)

This feels like some sort of Moneyball–qua-NFL exercise: is kick returning an explicit skill beyond just being fast or having a nose for open space or having the bravery to run full speed at a wall of defenders who are running full speed at you? If it IS, we got the guy who was literally the best at it in the nation, and maybe that’ll be some sort of competitive advantage. If not, we got a small not-exceptionally-fast gadget player when there were more intriguing players still on the board. (And a guy who, ohbytheway, was out on the golf course when he got the call because he didn’t expect to get drafted this high.) Full disclosure: I’m willing to admit I liked Skyler Bell from UConn in this slot.

Feel free to rub my nose in it the first time Wetjen takes one to the house. If he’s that much of a difference-maker, being wrong will be well worth it.

Riley Nowakowski (TE/FB, Indiana)

Utility pick. We needed a FB/TE hybrid to replace Ironhead Jr., Nowakowski seems to have that similar toolbox.

Gabe Rubio (DT, Notre Dame)

No strong impression, beyond “we can’t use ALL our picks on offense, can we?”

Robert Spears-Jennings (S, Oklahoma)

Conventional wisdom suggests we might have gotten a bit of a bargain here. Good physical tools and a hitter. Disappeared a bit his senior year, but was more highly regarded as a junior. No harm in throwing him onto special teams and seeing what he turns into.

Eli Heidenreich (RB, Navy)

I wouldn’t go all the way to “conspiracy” but this always felt a little inevitable. Local kid? Navy man? Just surprised they didn’t have Michael Keaton stick around to welcome him to the stage.

As far as Xs and Os, I’m never sure how to evaluate players from the service academies: there’s no reason they CAN’T be good athletes, but it’s not really their primary job the way it is at other schools. They’re being trained for… you know… Other Stuff… and football is a side hustle for them. In terms of fit, a Kenneth Gainwell replacement would be a nice outcome if it happens. Or maybe I’m just wishcasting along with everyone else.

Perchance To Dream

Every once in a while, the universe throws you a little reminder that the descent into global suckitude is not inevitable, and we can still choose a different path.

This weekend, we got a two-fer.

On Friday, night the Artemis 2 mission safely returned to earth. I have to admit: what started out as “just dropping in to see what was happening” turned into my whole Friday night. Yes… even the part where it was just grainy footage of boats circling the capsule, waiting for it to cool down. I don’t exactly know why… we’ve been sending people back and forth to the International Space Station for decades, and I didn’t watch ANY of those landings. But something about this one drew me in.

I suppose some of the appeal is that the moon captures the imagination in a way bumming around in orbit doesn’t. I was born in 1970, so I missed Apollo 11 entirely, and was way too young to take in the other moon landings, so this felt like the next closest thing to being there at the time. At a broader level, I appreciated the reminder that science can still accomplish amazing things, even under an administration that seems openly hostile toward science. (Speaking of which: the interview with the Trump toadie running NASA briefly derailed the good vibes, but things bounced back quickly.) Certainly the crew and their collective story was appealing. But the underrated star of the show was the little chat scroll on the side of the screen — thousands of people from all over the world, watching together, with almost NO negativity or shit-talking. As much as we’re doing to burn up our goodwill around the world, people who are probably Sick Of America’s Shit(tm) at the moment still wanted our astronauts to get home safe. As cheesy as it sounds, something about that felt comforting.

(Well… comforting aside from the momentary heart attack — I didn’t realize they had to cut the drogue parachutes loose to deploy the mains, so there was a short moment where the drogues broke free and the capsule fell out of frame, and I thought we were about to witness an unfolding catastrophe. COULDA USED A HEADS-UP, OTHERWISE-REASSURING NASA DUDE.)

And then, on Sunday, the universe gave us a second positive sign, from Hungary.

For those of you who don’t know, Hungary’s prime minister, Viktor Orban has been looming as a Ghost Of Christmas Future for Trump’s plans for America. Orban has been in power for 16 years, and has basically been implementing a lot of the same Project 2025 shit Trump is trying to pull here. Courts just as packed with partisan judges, media just as captured by regime-friendly oligarchs, just as hostile toward LGBTQ people, just as cozy with Putin. You can argue Orban’s vision for Hungary is the blueprint Trump has been trying to emulate. (And OK… elephant in the room… they’re BOTH copying off Putin’s paper as well.)

Which makes it all the more gratifying that Orban’s Fidesz party got absolutely dog-walked in the Hungarian elections. The opposition party, Tizsa, took 138 out of 199 seats in Hungary’s legislature — good enough for a 2/3 supermajority that should give them the power to undo a lot of Orban’s rat-fuckery. The win was so decisive that there wasn’t even much of a point of trying to contest it in court: since Orban had stacked the courts with partisan judges, there was concern Tizsa would win, but the margin would be narrow enough that Fidesz would try to throw it to the courts and hope to be declared the winners that way. (Sound familiar?)

Nope. It was a thorough ass-kicking. So much so that Orban’s already conceded defeat.

Now, to pump the brakes a LITTLE, Tisza is considered a center-right party, so the American analogue would be Trump/MAGA Republicans losing, but NeverTrump Republicans being placed back in charge. So some aspects of the victory will be more muted than others. But there’s already been positive signs that they’re going to distance from Putin and re-build their ties with the EU, including unblocking Hungarian support for Ukraine.

And again, pulling out to the 10,000 foot level… it’s an aspirational sign for what we can do here in America in 2026 and 2028 if we stay motivated, find the right candidates to get behind, and do the work. Hungary’s system has been just as thoroughly gamed as the one Trump is trying to create here, and it still CRUMBLED in the face of enough people coming together and saying “this needs to fucking stop“. There’s no denying we’re going through some frustrating times, hope’s not a substitute for doing the work, but Hungary reminded us that “too far gone” doesn’t have to be the state of affairs.

Project Runway: City Connect 2026

City Connect. Sometimes it’s kinda cool reading about the little details and design choices that went into making them; other times, they range from underwhelming to baffling. But MLB’s never going to stop looking for chances to move merch, so… as of 10am, we have this year’s batch on display, and presumably in stores.

The one major difference this year is that MLB launched all of this year’s uniforms in one announcement. The M.O. in previous seasons is that teams would stagger the launches, usually showing them to the world a few weeks before they were set to debut. This time, they just kinda released them into the wild en masse.

So let’s see what we have to work with, and I’m going to go in rough order of what I think of them. Though admittedly, a few of them rose or dropped a spot or two as I was putting my thoughts together.

Atlanta Braves

The previous City Connects were kind of an unfinished Etsy version of the 70s throwbacks with “The A” branding, so I was not a fan. For the current unis, I consider myself a Powder Blue Afficionado, so I LOVE the color choice. The Braves’ 70s unis have long been one of my favorite retros, so still borrowing the fonts and stylings of that uni set also appeals to me. “No notes”, as they say.

Pittsburgh Pirates

The previous ones were OK, but they were a little TOO evocative of the Lumber Company black-and-gold, and I was never quite sold on the “PGH” branding. I always thought the jerseys looked better the few times they wore them with the white pants. This one? Same basic problem — I really dig the jersey in isolation, but the full set leaves me a little underwhelmed. Mono-black always feels kinda try-hard to me (and is gonna SUCK in summer), and it doesn’t really go well with a gold hat.

On the other hand, if I was considering a Konnor Griffin jersey, this might be the one.

Baltimore Orioles

I’ve long been a fan of the vest or vest-adjacent look with contrast sleeves, so I kinda dig this. I don’t know if “BMORE” is a thing; I’ll leave that to the locals. Since the previous set was mono-black, I’d say this is an improvement.

San Diego Padres

It’s OK… I just think a) it looks a little like they snuck a peek at the Giants’ paper from last year and b) I thought the previous… I don’t know, “tropical chaos”?… ones were fun and really something distinct.

Cincinnati Reds

There are some things I like. They actually used RED instead of mono-black this time, which… that’s great. And in the closeups, there are red-on-red pinstripes that actually look quite nice. But to some extent, it just feels like an incremental re-color of the previous (black) set, and maybe it’s TOO much red. So they may also have the Pirate problem where the jersey might fare a little better in a different overall set. Like… that jersey with white pants might really rock.

Kansas City Royals

I guess it looks OK, though it also has the Reds’ issue where it looks like an iteration/recolor instead of something new. Change the top from blue to white, put the sleeve logo on the chest, and call it a day. To be fair, I guess there’s some additional striping and they worked some pink in there too, but… ehhh.

Texas Rangers

It’s clean. If you’re a “less is more” person, this might be the second best behind Atlanta. And probably an improvement over the Hot Topic/Ed Hardy Fontapalooza that the previous set was. The problem is that it just looks like a college team. And looking at some of the detail shots, it seems like the best features aren’t going to be things you’re going to see on a TV broadcast. Kinda like the O’s previous ones had that rainbow sleeve treatment — literally the best part of the thing — that was initially on the INSIDE of the cuff.

Milwaukee Brewers

Just kinda boring and underwhelming in a way I can’t quite put my finger on. Feels like something AI came up with. And again, is “Wisco” a thing, or is it something marketing came up with?

I Do Not Think That Amendment Means What You Think It Means

Look people, I’m only going to say this once.

(By which, I mean I’ve already written multiple Quora answers and comments on Facebook posts about it. Enough that it became a pet peeve.)

I keep seeing people suggesting that “it’s time to invoke the 25th Amendment!” with regards to Trump. And while I get the spirit of it and the frustration behind it (and largely agree), let’s be honest: the Article 4 of the 25th Amendment… probably even by design… is a TERRIBLE vehicle for regime change.

First, the “they” that gets to use the 25th Amendment is… wait for it… the Vice President and a majority of the Cabinet. So, in summary — J.D. Vance and all those people who seem to exist solely to make groveling speeches about how Trump is the Most Special Boy In The Whole World. Theoretically Congress could give that power to some other entity, but that road leads through Mike Johnson and he’ll probably claim this is the first he’s hearing of there being a 25th Amendment. So there’s no one with any sanity or spine that has the power to invoke it.

But let’s say there’s some seismic landslide and Democrats control Congress after the midterms. Let’s say they even were to pass a law giving some other entity the power to invoke the 25th. That gets to the more “forest for the trees” issue: the 25th was envisioned for dealing with TEMPORARY medical incapacitation — it was attempting to grapple with the question of “what if Kennedy had survived the shooting but was facing an extended recovery?” — so all of its mechanisms are geared toward the assumption that unless the President dies, they get to decide when they come back because that’s who the voters voted for.

So in the here and now, let’s pretend J.D. Vance’s Silicon Valley backers decide Trump’s no longer good for their investments and a change is in order. Vance gets the Cabinet on-board, the 25th is invoked… and as it’s written, all Trump would have to is inform Congress “nah, I’m good, I’d like my job back”. (Granted, he’d have to write an actual letter, not a Truth Social post, which is a BIT of a hurdle. But I digress.) At that point, the burden shifts to Congress to provide cause why he shouldn’t be allowed to come back. And here’s the real rub: the bar for that is HIGHER than just impeaching him. Impeachment is a majority of the House to file the articles; two-thirds in the Senate to remove from office. To make a contested 25A removal permanent*, it’s 2/3rds of BOTH houses. And the whole thing has to happen within 21 days, or it expires and the President still gets the job back. So… gets out slide rule… carry the two… that’s more difficult.

*=I’m not even sure it’s permanent; it just says the Acting President “continues”. Which sort of implies Trump or whatever Hypothetical Future President we’re talking about could just keep trying?

The ONLY way I can see 25A removal being a “better” tool for Presidential removal is this: it takes effect immediately. With impeachment, there’s a whole trial, during which the President would continue to hold the office: presumption of innocence and such. A 25A removal AT LEAST takes effect immediately, and the President is out of the chair while the contested removal plays out. So I don’t know how much more Trump has to do to qualify for Mad King status in Republican eyes — hug a black person, maybe? — but if we somehow ever hit that redline and they REALLY need to get distance between him and The Button, the immediate effect is the ONE way in which it doesn’t suck.

Sorry if this rains on anyone’s parade, but I’ve heard the 25th waved around as a magic wand enough that it’s reached a low simmer for me. Civics 101 lecture concluded; go on about your business.

The Most F1-derful Time Of The Year

The world may be collapsing, but it’s STILL almost time to go racing in 2026.

Spring. The time of renewal. Yes, we’ve also got the crack of the bat and pop of a fastball emanating from Florida and Arizona on this side of the pond, but today we focus on the sight of uncomfortably-fashionable European metrosexuals driving rocket sleds really fast. That’s right, it’s Formula 1’s 2026 season, it starts this weekend in Australia, and it’s likely to be one of the most interesting seasons in recent history.

New Car, Who Dis?

The big reason for excitement this year is that FIA (the governing body for F1) has announced New Sporting Regulations, which in less Fancy-Man terms means the teams have to build a new car from the ground up. So a lot of the pecking order that had built up over the past few years is thrown out the window and everyone gets a fresh start… if they get the car right. We could go into the deep weeds but the main change is that they’re trying to make the sport more eco-friendly by shifting the balance between traditional combustion power and electrical power. (It may surprise the casual fan or non-fan to learn this but F1 cars are actually hybrids… though definitely NOT your neighbor’s Prius.) FIA is shifting things from “mostly traditional combustion with a small electrical component” to a 50-50 split between combustion and electric power. Glass-half-full, it’s going to force drivers to manage their battery consumption more which may make driver skill more prominent in the equation; glass-half-empty, there were several drivers in spring testing who felt like they spent TOO much time managing power, such that they couldn’t really RACE effectively.

There are certainly other changes — cars are going to be a little smaller and lighter; there are changes to the aerodynamics — but the power specs are the big thing that’s going to dictate how this season goes.

The early returns from pre-season testing are mixed. The hierarchy at the top remains, insofar as the Big 4 of the previous cycle — McLaren, Red Bull, Mercedes, and Ferrari — are largely STILL the top four. But the order is a little jumbled, as McLaren (the 2025 team champions) seem to be the slowest of the lead pack while Ferrari and Mercedes seem like they’re poised to be far more competitive, if not possible front-runners. Meanwhile, further down the grid, Alpine seems surprisingly competitive after being nowhere for most of last year, while Williams (2025’s best-of-the-rest) missed the first testing session because their car was too heavy. And Aston Martin… hoooo boy. Don’t even know where to begin with that. Put a pin in it for now.

New TEAM, Who Dis?

The other big change is that we have a new team making its debut — Cadillac makes it 11 teams and 22 cars on the grid, after more than a decade at 10 and 20. It’s worth mentioning that Cadillac’s first attempt to join F1 (as Andretti Racing at that point) was rejected a few years earlier: either they didn’t think Andretti’s business plan was strong enough, or the existing teams didn’t want to cut the profits pie into 11 slices instead of 10. So they went back and reswizzled their plan, pushed GM/Cadillac to the lead of the partnership, and got approved.

Cadillac’s team is a bit polarizing insofar as they’re really leaning into their identity as An American Team(tm). Some of it is good harmless fun — Keanu Reeves doing a Matrix-esque hype video, Finnish driver Valtteri Bottas embracing a bit of a Euro-redneck persona on social media — but some of it plays a little tone-deaf when the list of countries we’re bombing grows longer by the day. Also, more within the sport itself, there’s been a simmering frustration that American dollars and American fans are being prioritized over F1’s traditional fanbase, and Cadillac’s entry is seen as another slap in that collective face.

For their drivers, Cadillac went with the theme of “Experienced Wingmen To Previous World Champions”. The aforementioned Bottas was Lewis Hamilton’s teammate for several of L. Ham’s Mercedes championships, while Sergio Perez (aka “Checo”) was Max Verstappen’s teammate at Red Bull more recently. The thinking seems to be if you’re developing the car from scratch, get experienced guys who can give you good feedback rather than young drivers who may still be learning themselves. Though they do have former IndyCar driver Colton Herta in the pipeline as project for the future.

New Champion, Who Dis?

I swear we’ll move on to a new theme for our subheads, but the other excitement is that we have a new defending drivers’ champion and outstanding Muppet candidate… Lando Norris of McLaren. Red Bull’s Max Verstappen had won four years in a row, but had a rough first half of 2025 and JUST missed out on a fifth. Red Bull spent the first half of the season in the weeds and ended up firing team principal Christian Horner. Shortly thereafter, Max went on a tear for the ages in the second half, cutting a margin of 100-plus points in August to a final margin of two. Given Max’s late-season momentum, there’s a real sense that if the season was one race longer, Max would’ve completed the comeback and had the Steeler-esque “one for the thumb”… a sentiment also reflected in the fact that Verstappen still won the Driver of the Year award (voted by peers) over Norris.

For the record, McLaren dominated in the constructors’ championship… had it sewn up by summer break. I just didn’t think there’s much to say about it since that car got chucked after the season. Though it does speak to having a solid driver pair: there was a point where Norris’ teammate Oscar Piastri actually led in the driver standings.

In Contrast, A (Mostly) Stable Driver Lineup

Last year was a year of upheaval in terms of drivers. There were SIX rookie drivers (out of 20) and only two teams (McLaren and Aston Martin) returned their same driver pair from 2024. This year… much quieter: other than the Cadillac boys, we just have one rookie and one additional seat change. 18-year-old Arvid Lindblad moves up from F2 to race for VCARB (Visa CashApp Racing Bulls); Isack Hadjar (one of last year’s six rookies) moves up from VCARB to Red Bull, with Red Bull driver Yuki Tsunoda the guy left without a chair when the music stopped.

(This is where I pause to explain to novices and non-fans that Red Bull and VCARB are supposedly “independent” teams, though they are both owned by the same parent corporation, they swap drivers between the two teams rather freely, and there have been times where VCARB cars have made strategy decisions to the benefit of Red Bull’s cars. But hey… Cadillac’s the problem, right?)

What To Expect From 2026

I guess I’ll finish this with a quick tour of the paddock. Introduce (or re-introduce) the players, highlight the key issues, scribble down some thoughts… MAYBE a little bit of prediction, though the new cars make that a bit of a moving target. In reverse order of last year’s standings:

  • Cadillac (Valtteri Bottas / Sergio Perez): setting aside people’s feelings about ‘Murrica, they’re in the honeymoon phase, so they’re largely easy to root for. Bottas has always been a fun presence; a lot of people felt Perez got a raw deal when he got run out of Red Bull. Lowest-of-low expectations as a new team, so even a couple points finishes would be worthy of breaking out the party hats.
  • Alpine (Pierre Gasly/Franco Colapinto): largely sucked last year, though Gasly snuck into the points here and there. But to be fair, they were also one of the teams that basically punted on 2025 to get ready for 2026. Early spring testing looked decent, though below the Big 4. Worth mentioning that they’re run (unofficially) by “advisor” Flavio Briatore, who straddles the line between “colorful” and “asshole”. Among other things, he’s got a short leash for delivering results, so if you’re looking for a “Team Most Likely To Fire Drivers Mid-Season”, here’s where you put your money.
  • Audi (Nico Hulkenberg/Gabrielle Bortoletto): A bit of a question mark because Audi is new to the grid, though unlike Cadillac they bought up an existing team’s infrastructure. They’re also building their own engine for the first time. Hulkenberg is (in baseball terms) an innings-eater — high floor, low ceiling veteran; won’t make dumb mistakes, but also unlikely to win unless Audi’s engineers work a miracle. Bortoletto was one of the six rookies and had some moments where he looked decent. Maybe he can build on it.
  • Haas (Oliver Bearman/Esteban Ocon): they’re technically the “other” American team, though they don’t push it as hard in their marketing. Seemed like they got better as 2025 went on. Bearman (also one of the rookies) seemed like he was really putting it together as the year went on. Ocon is… we’ll go with “mercurial”. Sometimes he does surprisingly well; other times he does dumb shit and is pretty forgettable.
  • Aston Martin (Fernando Alonso): Right now, they’re shaping up as a disaster. Apparently the car has vibrations so bad that the drivers are complaining of physical pain, and there’s talk they may not even run a full race in Melbourne to give themselves more time to get things right. And this is despite hiring Adrian Newey, who’s supposed to be a Car Whisperer, as their chief engineer. Alonso is the oldest driver on the grid, so hopefully the car doesn’t drive him into retirement; Stroll is… Christ, his dad owns the team. Though, OK, I’ll be nice and point out he seems to drive good in wet weather, I suppose.
  • Racing Bulls (Liam Lawson/Arvid Lindblad): Lindblad is not just the only rookie this year, but he’s even at the young end of normal rookie age range. I think he may have been the youngest to ever win a race in F2. Lawson started last year at Red Bull and then got demoted to Racing Bulls (bUt We SwEaR tHeY’rE iNdEpEnDeNt), so he’s still working on his redemption arc. Lawson was also TECHNICALLY one of the 2025 rookies, though he had 8 races spread over 2023 and 2024.
  • Williams (Carlos Sainz/Alex Albon): Probably last year’s feel good story. Williams is one of the more storied F1 teams that fell on hard times, and had pretty much sucked within recent memory. But a new team principal (James Vowles) and an infusion of investment cash may have them at least headed the right direction. Best of the midfield last year, and Sainz in particular really seemed to be putting together after a slow start. Though again, they missed the first round of testing because their car was too heavy.
  • Ferrari (Charles Leclerc/Lewis Hamilton): it’s Ferrari. Expectations of greatness; excuses not tolerated. But… they’ve been toward the back of the big four recently. When it’s not the car, it’s the strategy choices. Leclerc feels like a guy who could be a champion if he gets the right car under him; until McLaren got their car right, Leclerc seemed like the next most likely challenger to Verstappen’s title. Hamilton is one of the sport’s GOATs, but he seemed to be regretting his life choices mightily last season. Hopefully this season will at least be the Ferrari experience he hoped to have when he left Mercedes.
  • Red Bull (Max Verstappen/Isack Hadjar): I don’t especially LIKE Max Verstappen, but the man does amazing things with a car, and he was THIS close to one of the greatest comebacks of all time in 2025. I can respect greatness when I see it. He’s unquestionably going to be in the title mix this year too. Hadjar was probably the best of last year’s rookies, and it earned him a bump from Racing Bulls to Red Bull. If they can get both cars doing well, maybe they’re back in play for the constructors’ championship too.
  • Mercedes (George Russell/Kimi Antonelli): Could be a team to watch. Promising spring testing, Russell has been sneaky-good for a while now, and Antonelli may have the highest ceiling of last year’s rookies. He had a rough patch in the middle of the season that stomped on his overall points, but when he was on, he was the one rookie out there who felt like he could legitimately win a race.
  • McLaren (Lando Norris/Oscar Piastri): you’ve got the defending champion, a “second” driver who spent a good chunk of the season beating him, and a team that doesn’t want to pick favorites between the two. It’ll be a fascinating year for the dynamics within the team. I just don’t know where they’ll stand overall, since early testing suggests their car is at the low end of the Big 4.

I feel like I could keep going, but since we’re about 12 hours from qualifying and 36 hours from racing, maybe it’s best to just call it for now and check back in once we have some real results. (Or… maybe the next day after I get some sleep because staying up until 1am local for an Australia race is always a bit brutal.) Happy Race Day in advance, and we’ll see you on the other side.

Deserve’s Got Nothin’ To Do With It

Fun week for NFL-based popularity contests. In the span of just a couple of days, we have one person getting an award they probably didn’t deserve, another NOT getting an award he almost certainly did… and people losing their shit about both.

For those not up on their American football (please don’t call it “sportsball” or “hand-egg”, I’m begging you), the two cases are:

  • Cleveland Browns’ rookie quarterback Shedeur Sanders, who played in less than half his team’s games, and was… how shall we put this?… “a work in progress” even when did play, was selected as a reserve for the NFL’s Pro Bowl (festivities). Think “All-Star Game”, except it’s not a game of 11-on-11 football, but a skills competition and some 7-on-7 flag football.
  • Long-time New England Patriots’ head coach Bill Belichick, who guided the Patriots to 6 Super Bowls, was NOT selected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame in his first appearance on the ballot.

For those who don’t follow the NFL, the Pro Bowl has kind of been a running joke for a while now. Even when it was still a “real” game of football, nobody took it all that seriously because a) it’s held at the end of the season and everyone’s ready to take the pads off and relax and b) nobody wants to blow-out an ACL and fuck up their career trajectory because they were going all-out in an exhibition game. Also, it used to at least be a free trip to Hawaii, and now it’s just played wherever the Super Bowl is, so — surprise, surprise — dudes weren’t lining up for a trip to San Francisco on a Tuesday in February.

(I mean, if you want a barometer of how seriously the game is taken, during one Pro Bowl, NFC center Jeff Saturday lined up for THE OTHER TEAM so he could snap the ball to his long-time teammate Peyton Manning, who was playing for the AFC.)

The point is, SEVERAL of the game’s stars pass on the Pro Bowl every year, and the league has to scramble to fill the slots. It’s the definition of business as usual. This time around, they took Shedeur Sanders, who… all fluffery aside… ranked 40th in QBR (ESPN’s attempt to create a one-number stat for QB performance). 32 teams… came in 40th… math doesn’t care about your feelings.

BUT… what Shedeur Sanders does have is “brand recognition”. First, he’s the son of NFL Hall of Famer/sometimes-TV-analyst/college coach/cowboy hat aficcionado Deion Sanders, one of the best to play the game. He’s also got history in that he had a weird NFL draft cycle in 2025– this time last year people were talking about him as not just the first QB taken, but a possible candidate to be taken #1 overall… and he ended up falling to the 5th round. So multiple teams that NEEDED quarterbacks (including my hometown Steelers) passed on him… more than once. So he’s a guy whose career people have been following with interest, regardless of his stats line looks like.

So… they gave the kid a spot because he might draw some eyeballs that luminaries such as Geno Smith or Marcus Mariota might not draw. And on THAT level, so what? The Pro Bowl Mid-Week Spectacle For Degenerate Gamblers To Wager On, Presented By FanDuel is an entertainment product, so… give the people something that might entertain them. Not that big a deal.

The only place I maybe push back a LITTLE is that there’s a body of Hot Takes from Browns’ fans and people who thought Shedeur got a raw deal back at the draft that are positioning this as a Vindication(tm). Indeed, that Shedeur has Proven The Haters Wrong(tm). Now, I don’t really have any animosity toward the kid outside the confines of the Steelers-Browns rivalry, and Shedeur himself has handled his selection with nothing but graciousness. But I mean… come on. Is that what we’re doing now?

Definitionally, vindication isn’t going to be found throwing flag football touchdowns in a game that’s going to be forgotten the second the whistle blows. Vindication is going to be found by coming back in 2026, starting 17 games, and completing 60 or 65 percent of his passes. If he does that, then yeah… THAT’S vindication. If he doesn’t do that, “Shedeur Sanders, Former Pro Bowler” may end up just being an interesting Jeopardy! question or a chyron on a Toronto Argonauts broadcast.

So now… Bill Belichick.

Much as it pains me to say it, if Bill Belichick isn’t a Hall of Fame coach, nobody is. And pass-fail, there’s a pretty clear case to be made that he should’ve been a first-ballot selection. Six Super Bowl rings, 302 career wins (3rd all time behind Don Shula and George Halas)… there’s really not much more you can do as a coach.

But still… some of the outrage feels a little over the top. He’s almost certainly getting in eventually. (In fact, I’ve got 20 bucks that says the NFL not-too-subtly attempts to whip the votes for him next year just to make sure this doesn’t remain an ongoing story.) He just didn’t make it this time.

First, there ARE blemishes on Belichick’s career. There’s Spygate, where he was sending Patriots’ personnel to record opponents’ practices so they could decipher their sideline signals, which is… not to put too fine a point on it… illegal. The Patriots were fined and had to give up draft picks at the time. There’s DeflateGate, where the Patriots would deflate the balls Tom Brady used so he could grip them better. Also illegal (the league DOES let teams set up the balls for their QB, but it’s required to be within a certain range of pressure); also resulted in fines and Brady actually got suspended. Belichick was also generally kind of a grumpy dude when dealing with the press. He’d do shit like list his ENTIRE team as Questionable on the injured report just to keep information from getting out, and… a LOT of really terse, combative answers over the years. Should that keep him out? Probably not… but on a HUMAN level, you can sorta understand Hall of Fame voters — most of whom are sportswriters whose jobs he made harder — meeting the same energy he put out into the world.

There’s even just the possibility that this was a “flaw” inherent to the voting system. Without getting into the deep weeds, there were five candidates on the supplementary ballot they use for coaches, owners, and players who fell off the “modern” ballot, and voters are only allowed to vote for three people. So it’s entirely possible you had a few voters who decided “well, Belichick’s getting in anyway, so maybe I’ll use three of my votes on guys who need the help more”. (The “other guys” were Patriot owner Robert Kraft, and players Ken Anderson, Roger Craig, and L.C. Greenwood.) If enough voters did that, you could easily end up with the “obvious” candidate missing the cut. Not to mention the possibilty of a vote split between Kraft and Belichick — maybe voters just didn’t want to vote for both and make it a Patriot lovefest.

Lastly, I have a personal pet theory: Tom Brady is eligible in 2028. What if Belichick didn’t get in this year because a few voters romanticized the notion of putting them in together? People always wrestle with who was more responsible for the Brady-Belichick Patriots'(tm) success… maybe some voters are ducking the question for two years so they don’t have to decide, so they can put them in as a tandem.

So pass-fail… should Belichick have gotten the votes? Yeah, probably. Does it represent some sort of crime against humanity and the ghost of Walter Camp? I guess YOU can take it that way if you want, but I’m not going to lose a lot of sleep over it.

But more forest for the trees… this is what happens when you try to hammer Jell-O to a wall by attempting to put “greatness” in a one-size-fits-all box. It’s true across sports, but everyone’s got their own definition: some people hew pretty close to what the statistical record says (the J. Evans Pritchard method), some people take — for lack of a less sappy word — a more “holistic” view of stardom, and there’s probably even a few people who just vote for what made them feel good as a fan. And that’s OK. First-ballot? Unanimous selection? Whatever, man… over the long haul, the various systems get it right more than they get it wrong, and it gives us something to shout about over beers when there’s nothing else on TV.

Exhuming McCarthy

I’ve been spinning my wheels for most of Sunday, between doom-scrolling the latest news out of Minnesota and checking my work email every half-hour just to see if anyone’s made a determination about whether we’re open or closed tomorrow. So I figured I’d take a few moments to sidebar back into good ol’ Steeler football for a bit, since at some point yesterday, the Steelers announced a verbal agreement with Mike McCarthy to be their next head coach.

So… NOT a young defensive coordinator who’s never been an NFL head coach before. OK, that’s certainly different.

Look, I’m willing to admit my initial reaction was… not positive. Maybe I’d fallen a little too much in love with The Steeler Way(tm), or the gushing praise for the various young coordinators was getting to me, but it felt like a little bit of a letdown. You’re telling me we replaced a guy with a superficially good record whose accomplishments still felt mildly underwhelming with… a guy with a superficially good record whose accomplishments ALSO felt mildly underwhelming?

bUt He’S a YiNzEr, So He’S pRoBaBlY hAd O fRiEs Or SoMeThInG!

And OK… I’ll admit that it also crept into the back of my brain that this is all an exercise in the tail wagging the dog and the Steelers chose their coach so that Aaron Rodgers would be swayed to come back next year. That thought was worth popping an extra Tums before turning in for the night.

But I slept on it, and when I woke up this morning, I found myself not totally hating it IF they’re doing it for the right reasons.

The Steelers are clearly at a crossroads. They haven’t been the same since Ben retired (or really a few seasons before, when he started to decompose in real time), and the efforts to replace him have largely amounted to duct tape and paper clips. (MacGyver!) Steeler Nation can collectively rub one out to Renegade and the idea of “hard-nosed defense” as much as we want, but the truth remains that the NFL is a quarterback-driven league now. Certainly more than it was when Noll, Cowher, or Tomlin was hired.

It is known, khaleesi.

So there’s a mental math out there that says that our next head coach’s job — more than a leader of men, more than a purveyor of colorful quotes, certainly more than someone who knows where Isaly’s used to be — is to find our next franchise quarterback and set that kid up for success for the next decade. Unless he accidentally stumbles the team into the Super Bowl while doing so, ANYTHING else is secondary. I would argue the next guy could have three losing seasons, get fired, and if the QB position is in a good spot for the next guy… that’s still a success.

As an aside, at this point I’m agnostic whether The Kid is to be Will Howard, drafting someone new, or throwing a bag at Malik Willis and hoping he can be turned into the new Sam Darnold/Baker Mayfield reclamation success. Just so long as we’re not living of the purgatory of being Linked To Kirk Cousins any more.

Looking at it through that more task-oriented lens… Mike McCarthy is probably an acceptable pick for the moment. He’s generally regarded as a solid offensive mind, and he did oversee MOST of Aaron Rodgers’ career development (though you have to be fair and mention that he did not draft Rodgers; he inherited him). Much as we might fetishize the idea of Three Coaches In Modern History, and how some unknown New Toy Syndrome coordinator might sound exciting, how is a novice coach supposed to build a franchise QB when he still has to figure out his own stuff first?

(Though… I wouldn’t mind more of a hotshot young guy as OC, so that maybe there’s a transition path and maybe some continuity beyond McCarthy’s years. If you could maybe get that Scheelhaase kid from the Rams to bite on upgrading from “pass game coordinator” to OC… maybe that’s worth pursuing. Best of both worlds.)

So… maybe it’s best to do something different. Maybe we don’t need the right man for the next two decades, maybe we need the right man for this moment, and (gulp) maybe that’s Yinzer Mike. Don’t get attached; he’s here to get the QB position right and then he’s moving on. If he has success and sticks around after that… OK; if he turns the keys over to the Fifth Coach In Modern History in better shape than he found it, that’s ALSO an acceptable outcome.

Abandon All Hope, Ye Without $300M Media Deals

So, it was shaping up as kind of a fun off-season. It looked like the Pittsburgh Pirates were actually TRYING for once. Gregory Soto, Ryan O’Hearn, Brandon Lowe… OK, they weren’t bringing in perennial all-stars, but they immediately upgraded the Pirates’ roster better. And there were whispers that more moves were still on the way. It looked like the front office had finally gotten the message that it was time to put up or shut up.

And then… Kyle Tucker to the Dodgers. Four years… $240M.

That’s right. $60M a year for a guy who’s certainly GOOD (the 4.6 WAR he put up in 2025 is the lowest since becoming a full-time starter), but I’m not sure there’s too many people who think of Tucker as a “face of the franchise” type of player. But hey, the Dodgers have the money and want a few more toys, so that’s what’s going to happen.

And all of the sudden, as a Pirate fan, it feels like being thrown in a cold shower. Fuck you for daring to even hope things could be better. Fuck you for caring at all as a fan. Your team exists merely for the Dodgers (and a few other teams) to have someone to play against, and to develop players to fill their shopping list when they have an opening. And that’s just how it’s going to be.

Look, I know Bob Nutting gets a lot of heat for being cheap, and that’s absolutely PART of the problem. “Sell the team, Bob!” Yeah, yeah, yeah… makes for a clever slogan and earns some cheap points, I suppose. Put it on a T-shirt, make a few bucks. But guess what. Bob Nutting can sell the team tomorrow, and whatever Imaginary Friend people have concocted to “Save the Team” isn’t going to magically make the Pirates’ local media deal $200-250M more lucrative. If teams can outspend you to the point where you can’t even make a profit (these teams are still businesses, after all), and then just throw in another $100M for shits and giggles… while I don’t feel SORRY for Bob Nutting, I do feel sorry for the fans who get sold a bill of goods year after year.

I’ve had enough of being gaslit about how broken a system is in the “real” world, don’t need it in my sports fandom too, thanks. I look at the NFL and NHL delivering a compelling product even with a salary cap, and if I say “why can’t baseball just do THAT?” I get an army of scolds asking me “wHy Do YoU sUpPoRt ThE bILlIoNaIrEs?” I don’t. I support ME as a FAN, being offered an entertainment product that isn’t a fucking joke. I don’t care how the billionaires who own the teams and the millionaire who play for them — ALL of whom make more money than I’m going to make in my working lifetime — divide the money. (Though as an aside, I think they all need to do better by the guys in the minors.)

At some point, fuck it. Either institute a salary cap — yes, with a FLOOR too so that Cheap-Ass Bob Nutting has to invest in the product — or just dissolve MLB and have the Dodgers play the Savannah Bananas 162 games a year. They’ll get the spectacle they want and the rest of us can stop caring about an entertainment product that clearly doesn’t care about us as fans.

Requiem For The Standard

I look at Mike Tomlin’s departure from the Pittsburgh Steelers after 19 years the same way I look at divorce. Not every story has a villain; not every divorce ends in cheating, abuse, or other dramatic acrimony. Sometimes people just grow apart; so too with football coaches, teams, and their fan bases.

I think in today’s “hot take” culture, it’s easy to fish for the extreme take: “Tomlin sucks; good riddance” vs. the scolding “be careful what you wish for, Steeler fans, you just got it”. But I think with the truth is somewhere in the middle — Tomlin was a decent coach, but I think it’s a fair criticism that complacency just set in, and at SOME point, something was going to have to change. Whether this off-season is the right or the wrong time to pull the pin on that grenade… I guess we’re going to find out.

The good is right up there in the record books: zero losing seasons in a 19-year career. Some people kinda brush that off, but yes, that is an achievement. 31 out of 32 teams end every season disappointed, but the Steelers never felt IRRELEVANT on his watch — some organizations can’t even say that. If Tomlin ought to be dinged for the years he underachieved with a 12 or 13-win team, he probably ought to earn some praise for the years the Steelers looked like a 5 or 6 win team on paper and he somehow navigated them to respectability. And dudes LOVED to play for him. I don’t think that makes a difference for STAR players, who just want to get paid as much as possible, but it when it came to signing veteran depth guys, it’s a competitive advantage I think we may come to miss. I’m not sure Pittsburgh is as much of a “destination” without Tomlin at the helm. (Especially not if you read those NFL player surveys that rank the Steelers toward the bottom of the league in terms of facilities and organizational culture.)

But the warts are also equally evident. The most obvious is the recent playoff record — it’s not just that we went 0-7 in recent playoff memory, but few of those games even felt competitive. Weird choices in game management — playcalling, clock management, and such — brushed off with some Tomlinism that didn’t really explain the thought process that went into it. The Steelers managed to play down to the level of at least one inferior opponent per season; so much so that the fanbase collectively seemed to fear the trap game against some 3-9 team more than playing the Ravens. Every opposing tight end in the league probably circled us on the calendar because we seemed to be incapable of covering one properly. (Though… I suppose that complaint even goes back to Cowher. ALFRED F’ING PUPUNU.)

And for a guy who brought the world “we do not live in our fears”, the Steelers sure feel like a team that’s been playing fearfully in recent years: playing NOT to lose, rather than to win. The pathological aversion to throwing to the middle of the field (BUBBLE SCREENS… BUBBLE SCREENS FOR EVERYONE!). Going too conservative, too early when we had a lead, letting teams claw their way back in it. The “keep the play in front of you, give up small chunks, and hope you can get a splash play or the offense makes a mistake before they string 12 plays together” defense. With the Cowher Steelers and even the EARLY Tomlin years, we didn’t play that way. We played to win; sometimes we even stepped on a team’s neck and ran it up on them. If this move is an acknowledgement that we need to get back to that mentality… I’m here for it.

Of course the elephant in the room is the ONE thing that can’t be solved by letting your coach walk: this is a quarterback-driven league, and we haven’t had a quarterback for a good chunk of that 0-7 run. The thing we don’t really know (because there’s not any Hard Knocks footage to dissect) is how to apportion the blame: how much is Tomlin’s fault for his choices of coordinators and coaching, and how much of that is the front office burying their head in the sand during Ben’s decline phase and not creating a more graceful transition?

(Hey, remember when Lamar Jackson was just sitting there and we took Terrell Edmunds instead? Pepperidge Farms remembers.)

So what comes next?

For the Steelers, if they stick with the recipe, it’s going to be a young defensive coordinator who’s never been a head coach before. I would argue that the game has changed and we need an offensive mind, but given that they’re 3-for-3 on coaching hires during my lifetime, I’m willing to trust the process. Though, I kinda like Brian Flores, so if they’re willing to be a little flexible on the “never coached before” check-box, I don’t think that’s a bad outcome.

I have heard a few people say “well, who would any coach want the Steelers’ job?” You mean the one job that if you get it right, you might get two decades of job security because it’s a old-school family-run organization that thinks coaching churn is embarrassing in some way? WHO INDEED? But I’d also say that the Steelers have some pieces in place to be a decent team… it’s just that they’re missing the ONE piece that’s most important. Yeah, the Ravens probably have an edge because Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry are pretty plug-and-play, and the Giants might be intriguing if you’re a coach who believes in Jaxson Dart… but I don’t think the Steelers represent some black hole like the Browns or Titans still largely are.

As for Tomlin? Does he want to do TV? Were they actually going to fire him, and “walking away” was a negotiated exit? Does he secretly want to coach again, but just wanted out of Pittsburgh? Is he going to lean into his resemblance to Omar Epps and do a reality show where they Freaky Friday each other’s lives, with Epps coaching a football team and Tomlin going to acting auditions?

It’s not that I don’t care; it’s more that Bill Cowher’s departure cured me of my interest in speculating too aggressively about guys’ reasons for stepping away. If you remember Cowher leaving, everyone was freaking out because How Could He Walk Away At The Height Of A Dynasty?(tm) And then we learned several years later it was probably to spend time with his wife, who it turned out was battling cancer, but he just kept that part of his life private. So if Tomlin says he wants to step away… HOWEVER that might have come about behind the scenes or what his future plans are… I guess that’s what the man’s doing. As a wise man once said, “we want volunteers, not hostages”, and that includes the head coach.

So… thanks for 19 great years, Coach T. It’s been a fun ride, I hope you have a good… break, retirement, whatever this ends up being… and we’ll see you if and when you wish to be seen.